⚡️Market Strategy Flash
June 5, 2026
It’s time-minus seven (T-7) days and counting until the SpaceX (SPCX) initial public offering (IPO), which is targeting a monumental valuation between $1.5 - 2.0 trillion+! To ensure a flawless liftoff, management, banks and investors will be counting down their pre-launch checklists till the final ignition sequence.
This week, I indulge the science fact and fiction fans amongst us – me included – with a thought experiment and related research questions about the broader space economy. Indeed, it’s a thrilling time to look upward and outward! However, scaling and valuing an industry that operates outside our atmosphere requires a shift in how we think about and apply traditional financial models.
While this list is by no means exhaustive, here’s a breakdown of how to practically value the space economy today, why infinite space may not equal infinite value, and a few unconventional frameworks for sizing its market and economic prospects.
1. How can we scale and value the space economy?
2025 / 2026 Space Revenues: The global space economy is currently generating between $400 - 600 billion annually. Roughly 70 - 78% of those revenues are driven by the commercial sector, primarily satellite broadband, ground equipment and launch services. For context, SpaceX alone reported $18.7 billion of revenues for 2025.
2025 - 2035 Projection: Conservative estimates from entities like the World Economic Forum (WEF) point to $1.8 trillion of annual revenues by 2035.
2025 / 2026 Space Market Capitalization:
- Public “Pure-Play” Companies:$150 - 200 billion. This group is heavily concentrated among a few leaders, such as Rocket Lab ($83 billion), AST SpaceMobile ($37 billion) and Planet Labs ($18 - 20 billion), which account for the bulk of the industry’s market cap.*
- The SpaceX Factor: SPCX is actively targeting an IPO valuation between $1.5 - 2.0 trillion+.
- Aggregate “Pure-Play” Sector: If SPCX goes public at the high end of its target range, the aggregate market cap of the “pure-play” space sector immediately resets to roughly $2.1 trillion+.
To scale the industry practically, analysts should divide it into a distinct value chain:
The space economy’s near-term value chain
Sources: WCG, 6/1/26. Notes: GPS = Global positioning system. AI = Artificial intelligence.
2. If space is infinite, is the size and value of the space economy also infinite? It’s tempting to think that the universe is physically infinite, so the economic value waiting to be extracted is also infinite.
Mathematically and economically, however, that may be unrealistic. First, value requires utility and scarcity, not just volume. If a company successfully towed an asteroid made of solid gold or platinum into Earth’s orbit and began mining it, the sudden and massive supply shock would likely crash the precious metal’s terrestrial market price.
Second, investors don’t value the sum of all future output. In finance, we value the present value (PV) of all future output. And the PV of any asset is limited by the time value of money (TVM). Imagine humanity eventually creates an interstellar civilization worth quadrillions of dollars annually. If those cash flows (CF) are centuries away and discounted at 5 - 10%, their contribution to PV is surprisingly modest. Even if the space economy yields infinite resources over an infinite timeline, its PV remains finite as long as the discount rate (r) exceeds the growth rate (g) of its CF, as governed by the standard perpetuity formula:
Third, economic expansion in space is currently bottlenecked by the laws of physics, specifically the Tsiolkovsky rocket equation, which dictates the exponential fuel cost of moving mass:
Profit margins in space are literally weighed down by gravity. Achieving linear increases in mission velocity (Δv) requires exponentially larger launch mass ratios, forcing an ever-greater portion of a rocket’s initial mass (m₀) to be devoted to fuel rather than revenue-generating payload (mf). Space may be infinite, but accessible, economically viable space is highly constrained until we discover and harness new energy sources, efficient sub-luminal propulsion (e.g., solar, nuclear, ion) and theoretically faster than light (FTL) travel (e.g., antimatter, gravity, teleportation, wormholes).
3. Is the Earth’s global market cap a reasonable near- to intermediate-term target and longer-term theoretical lower bound?
Earth’s global market cap currently hovers around $150 trillion.
“Escape velocity” and Mother Earth’s gravitational pull
Sources: Google, Visual Capitalist, WCG, 6/1/26. Notes: UK = United Kingdom. US = United States.
- Near- to Intermediate-Term (Now to 2035): No. Suggesting the space economy will eclipse Earth’s market cap in the next decade implies that orbital and lunar assets will generate more economic output than the entire human civilization on Earth. In the near term, space is a derivative of the Earth economy, meaning we launch things into space to serve people on the ground via data, internet and defense.
- Long-Term Theoretical Lower Bound (Centuries): Yes. If humanity transitions into a multi-planetary species – moving toward a Kardashev Type I or II civilization that harnesses the total energy of our local star system – Earth’s current market cap may eventually look like an early waypoint, rather than an upper limit. For any investable timeline today, however, Earth remains the primary engine and ultimate consumer until we encounter and trade with other planets and civilizations.
4. What are some other creative ways of sizing and valuing the space economy?
Stepping outside of standard Wall Street models, here are three theoretical ways to value the space economy:
- The “Orbital Compute” / “Cold-Data” Thesis: I talked about this on our latest episode of WCG’s The Bull of Wall Street podcast. Rather than valuing space for its physical materials, value it for its environment. Space is incredibly cold and offers 24/7 unhindered solar energy. We could size the space economy by calculating the future demand for AI processing power, pricing out the cost of orbiting data centers against terrestrial power grids, and valuing the sector based on orbital floating-point operations per second (FLOPs) per Watt. Investor enthusiasm regarding SPCX is understandable given that it’s the only company currently capable of building data centers in space.
- The “Delta-V” Reserve Currency: In a mature space economy, the US Dollar may become less relevant than the energy required to move assets between orbits. We could value the economy based on the total mass of refined propellant stored in orbital depots, effectively treating v (the change in velocity) as the “gold standard” of the 22nd century.
- The “Biosphere Preservation” Premium: What’s the financial value of offloading heavy, polluting industries such as semiconductor manufacturing or metallurgy entirely from Earth? We could value the space economy by calculating the trillions of dollars in averted climate catastrophe and ecological restoration on Earth made possible by moving heavy industry into orbit.
5. What’s the range of implied investment returns on the space economy?
Using a $2.1 trillion market cap and $500 billion of revenues as starting baselines, here’s the mathematical range of returns required to reach our theoretical targets:
Implied investment returns
Sources: WCG, 6/1/26. Notes: ROI = Return on investment, assuming the valuation multiple remains unchanged. Forecasts and projections are for informational purposes only, may not come to pass, are not guarantees of future results, and are subject to change without notice.
- The “2035” target assumes the space economy hits the WEF’s conservative $1.8 trillion revenue projection. If the sector’s price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 4.2x ($2.1 trillion / $0.5 trillion) remains constant as it matures, a 3.6x ($1.8 trillion / $0.5 trillion) increase in revenues implies the aggregate market cap would grow from $2.1 - 7.6 trillion.
- The “Earth market cap” target measures the raw expansion required for the space sector’s current market cap ($2.1 trillion) to equal the current global market cap of all public equities on our planet ($150 trillion).
*Traditional aerospace companies, such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, account for hundreds of billions of dollars of additional market cap. However, analysts generally exclude them from “pure-play” sector valuations because space represents only a fraction of their total operations.
Definitions
SpaceX is a private American aerospace company founded by Elon Musk that designs, manufactures and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft. It is famous for creating reusable rockets and operating the Starlink satellite internet constellation.
An IPO is the process where a private company sells its shares to the public on a stock exchange for the first time. It allows the general public to buy a stake in the business and helps the company raise a large amount of money.
Market Cap is the total dollar value of a public company’s outstanding shares of stock. It’s calculated by multiplying a company’s total shares by the current market price of a single share.
A P/S Ratio is a financial metric that compares a company’s stock price to its annual revenues per share. It shows how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar of sales the company generates.
The WEF is an international non-profit organization based in Switzerland that brings together global political, business and cultural leaders to shape global and industry agendas. It’s best known for its annual meeting of elites in Davos.
TVM is a core financial concept stating that a sum of money in your hand right now is worth more than the exact same sum promised in the future. That’s because money today can earn interest, grow through investments and avoid the eroding effects of inflation.
One of the foundational equations of finance, the standard perpetuity formula is PV = CF / r, where PV = present value, CF = cash flow per period, r = discount rate.
The Gordon Growth Model is PV = CF1 / r - g, where CF1 = next period’s cash flow, r = discount rate, and g = perpetual growth rate.
One of the foundational equations of astronautics, the Tsiolkovsky rocket equation is Δv = Ispg0 ln (m0/mf), where Δv = change in velocity required for a mission, Isp = specific impulse (a measure of propulsion efficiency), g0 = standard gravity at Earth’s surface, m0 = initial mass (vehicle + fuel + payload) and mf = final mass after fuel is burned.
The equation implies that required propellant grows exponentially as mission Δv increases. Equivalently, payload fraction falls rapidly as mission requirements become more demanding.
The Kardashev Scale is a framework proposed in 1964 by the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev to classify civilizations according to the amount of energy they can harness and use.
A Type I Civilization (Planetary Civilization) can utilize essentially all the energy available on its home planet.
A Type II Civilization (Stellar Civilization) can utilize a substantial fraction of the total energy output of its star.
Orbital FLOPs per Watt measure the energy efficiency of computers processing data directly in space. It calculates how many mathematical operations a satellite or spacecraft can perform per second for every watt of electrical power it consumes.
Disclosures
The views expressed are for informational and educational purposes only and are subject to change without notice.
This material is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, sector, industry, or investment strategy.
References to specific companies, securities, sectors, or industries are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment recommendations.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss.
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Publication Date: June 5, 2026
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